Ledger / Prediction #2969 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

89 of 1185 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (29 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.

Made2026-10-13 08:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 09:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 08:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43187976859470595,
      "momentum": -0.8630795406271174,
      "diversity": -0.5089887640449438
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.22440317000278176
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.031835205992509365,
    "share60": 0.07546374367622259,
    "total15": 266,
    "total60": 1185,
    "momentum": 0.42186094197895097,
    "diversity": 0.3258426966292135,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 89,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 114,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9929836111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9929836111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.22440317000278176
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 09:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.050

Log loss0.254

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.053164556962025315,
  "shareRatio": 0.7099400929816552,
  "totalAfter": 1185,
  "shareBefore": 0.0750625521267723,
  "totalBefore": 1199,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 63,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 90
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 7.51% → 5.32% (-29%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash202e97b2c3d9da298624b316a53a19925951b24852de35ca5d655178f1a26c13

Previous hash59916d9441a8cc37f4d3b6b234f1b8e2fb361ca90f58c32382cac6872737a45b