Ledger / Prediction #2960 · narrative · 6H

Will "sir" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1168 launches in the last hour referenced "sir" (5 distinct creators, rank #165). Last 15m momentum 1.02×.

Made2026-10-13 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.018417786801654422,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4807326580286508
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sir",
    "rank60": 165,
    "share15": 0.004792332268370607,
    "share60": 0.004704875962360992,
    "total15": 312,
    "total60": 1168,
    "momentum": 1.01858844031368,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 141,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963255555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993875925925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4807326580286508
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 14:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.231

Log loss0.655

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0004763038818766373,
  "shareRatio": 0.470751530570682,
  "totalAfter": 8398,
  "shareBefore": 0.0010783608914450035,
  "totalBefore": 8346,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "sir" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.11% → 0.05% (-56%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "sir" (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3b7b1032c4c6f6f7d37fc6e287ad1e6a37472de8aaa05c41d8296891eb88e2df

Previous hash6b2fd86e19b3e53ce03a3a77a4adb1548c5dde8f399a1eb9b64042af3fe36c34