Ledger / Prediction #2952 · token · 6H

Will $BINU still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 14m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "black". Creator launched 28 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "mvzXL62aGbMfTUkEiNMZqdHVSP3j7MAS28npDCnpump",
    "name": "Black INU",
    "symbol": "BINU",
    "hotTerms": [
      "black",
      "inu"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 14,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 10,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2014.0339133305886,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 28
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 334,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.031

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T08:18:08.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2.886859278010814,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 6771.837686166313,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2014.0339133305886,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $BINU would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $BINU (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash118f98ed767b676647d2eaa82f152b24e562c7a6f8680597dd0b3ab152160fc7

Previous hash38cc8589ac66bea33ef1311c7edb8fff656d1ebf3011d7b46d6814683f8ab57d