Ledger / Prediction #2947 · narrative · 24H
Will "hitler" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
15 of 1115 launches in the last hour referenced "hitler" (12 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.13×.
Made2026-10-13 07:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 07:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 07:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.16479184330021643,
"momentum": -2.011192441145729,
"diversity": 0.06000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.23268705353049093
},
"features": {
"term": "hitler",
"rank60": 14,
"share15": 0.0018587360594795538,
"share60": 0.013888888888888888,
"total15": 268,
"total60": 1115,
"momentum": 0.1338289962825279,
"diversity": 0.8,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 15,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 12
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 178,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993772222222223,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999974050925926
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.23268705353049093
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 07:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.054
Log loss0.265
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0005941906437827091,
"shareRatio": 0.8974299205068436,
"totalAfter": 43757,
"shareBefore": 0.000664451827242525,
"totalBefore": 48160,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 26,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 32
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 23% that "hitler" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.07% → 0.06% (-11%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "hitler" (24H). momentum contributed -2.01 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
6fac8ac5ee26181b6ae3cf9cde16c59a767599b4890d63cca644bfdd1c5b77aePrevious hash
f7c774f1495deb605d8e09d8dd9bdb5079608bf0114b5d76cb64d03d7a9ffdcb