Ledger / Prediction #2934 · token · 6H

Will $Wojack still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 18m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 3 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "2FsXmZjhyEUtz41pck4d7RmurrcsU4XrLi8v5TEUpump",
    "name": "ウォジャック",
    "symbol": "Wojack",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 18,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 5756.693585694458,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 3
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 403,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T06:51:39.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3034.8457197972216,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 6547.988631837401,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 5756.693585694458,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 11513.387171388917
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $Wojack would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,035, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $Wojack (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash78804c06a59dd2f8868de57f0e82c63bd51e03160249700ffd95b4ff68a63182

Previous hashdf624de22bf332deebb427501c8a111a9c0fdcf8aa960a2607dc055e0d8e4f98