Will "wallet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
18 of 1156 launches in the last hour referenced "wallet" (15 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 1.66×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.19214007681930967,
"momentum": 0.5052711180084246,
"diversity": 0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.5246563840954235
},
"features": {
"term": "wallet",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.026501766784452298,
"share60": 0.01598962834917891,
"total15": 282,
"total60": 1156,
"momentum": 1.6574348199789897,
"diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 18,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 15
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 171,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9938113888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997421412037037
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5246563840954235
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0074974206121747105,
"shareRatio": 1.1807602863721227,
"totalAfter": 43615,
"shareBefore": 0.006349009389088804,
"totalBefore": 48354,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 327,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 307
}Predicted 52% that "wallet" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.63% → 0.75% (+18%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "wallet" (24H). momentum contributed +0.51 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
73dcdaa0363cfe4557b5f72225476e147c1bbed613312bfc27575980018da60ade316175a92284c1c5e16aa432c81acbb89de3d71c771d0ac1770080686a560b