GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #293 · narrative · 6H

Will "fox" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

89 of 2635 launches in the last hour referenced "fox" (40 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.42×.

Made2026-10-09 19:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 01:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 18:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43187976859470595,
      "momentum": 1.229025695697201,
      "diversity": -0.36067415730337077
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6479777361716569
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fox",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.11604774535809019,
    "share60": 0.03395295902883156,
    "total15": 753,
    "total60": 2635,
    "momentum": 3.417897840937718,
    "diversity": 0.449438202247191,
    "launches15": 87,
    "launches60": 89,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 425,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9976980555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996163425925926
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6479777361716569
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 01:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.420
Log loss1.044
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.004831237590999338,
  "shareRatio": 0.6627035764724921,
  "totalAfter": 15110,
  "shareBefore": 0.0073053642245877685,
  "totalBefore": 14373,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 73,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 105
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 65% that "fox" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.73% → 0.48% (-34%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "fox" (6H). momentum contributed +1.23 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash62dc20e33d018e5560967405e2b2352c28ab50d44c09b213fa8d701a370fa5b6
Previous hash24c52c24af32b2c53f35f3f68295adfada21e2a60c5afbcf7898d779049dceea