GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2929 · narrative · 24H

Will "agent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1156 launches in the last hour referenced "agent" (22 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.13×.

Made2026-10-13 07:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": 0.12294058530191712,
      "diversity": 0.24782608695652175
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4999593897229263
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "agent",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.022968197879858657,
    "share60": 0.02031114952463267,
    "total15": 282,
    "total60": 1156,
    "momentum": 1.1308172317870837,
    "diversity": 0.9565217391304348,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 171,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938113888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997421412037037
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4999593897229263
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 07:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.250
Log loss0.693
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.010478046543620315,
  "shareRatio": 1.0404280010158586,
  "totalAfter": 43615,
  "shareBefore": 0.01007155561070439,
  "totalBefore": 48354,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 457,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 487
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "agent" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 1.01% → 1.05% (+4%). PARTIAL.

— "agent" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashde316175a92284c1c5e16aa432c81acbb89de3d71c771d0ac1770080686a560b
Previous hashe700bc847005011af77ead67a625c1610085d5582b314fa4cb582d5d1cb04af0