Ledger / Prediction #2928 · narrative · 6H

Will "craftai" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1156 launches in the last hour referenced "craftai" (5 distinct creators, rank #100). Last 15m momentum 0.27×.

Made2026-10-13 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.2999113715517712,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.23065642683613816
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "craftai",
    "rank60": 100,
    "share15": 0.0017667844522968198,
    "share60": 0.00648228176318064,
    "total15": 282,
    "total60": 1156,
    "momentum": 0.2725559481743227,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 171,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938113888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989685648148148
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.23065642683613816
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.053

Log loss0.262

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000524177696239025,
  "shareRatio": 0.6770440251572327,
  "totalAfter": 7631,
  "shareBefore": 0.0008129137150156776,
  "totalBefore": 8611,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "craftai" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.05% (-36%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "craftai" (6H). momentum contributed -1.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe700bc847005011af77ead67a625c1610085d5582b314fa4cb582d5d1cb04af0

Previous hashf27bb8513e13c8a98c8e54bb7b714238775b3aea19031c9c9dae83433bdb37ea