Ledger / Prediction #2926 · narrative · 6H

Will "energy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

18 of 1156 launches in the last hour referenced "energy" (11 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 1.88×.

Made2026-10-13 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.19214007681930967,
      "momentum": 0.6304342609624305,
      "diversity": -0.1666666666666666
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5397000971285677
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "energy",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.030035335689045935,
    "share60": 0.01598962834917891,
    "total15": 282,
    "total60": 1156,
    "momentum": 1.8784261293095215,
    "diversity": 0.6111111111111112,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 18,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 171,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938113888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989685648148148
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5397000971285677
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.291

Log loss0.776

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009042065260123182,
  "shareRatio": 0.5662401895117649,
  "totalAfter": 7631,
  "shareBefore": 0.0160260132388805,
  "totalBefore": 8611,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 69,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 138
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "energy" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.60% → 0.90% (-44%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "energy" (6H). momentum contributed +0.63 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4e6d3fafa3407525d1159676ca9ba889df95375f49df5651b9fc127a39a36439

Previous hash3195d2d431540577e9bf9fe25cb6af7d6191353c35ebd2302a0920705218d906