Will "black" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1156 launches in the last hour referenced "black" (7 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.69×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": -0.36492850666546367,
      "diversity": -0.5769230769230769
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2700137549218539
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "black",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.015901060070671377,
    "share60": 0.022904062229904928,
    "total15": 282,
    "total60": 1156,
    "momentum": 0.6942462830855389,
    "diversity": 0.2692307692307692,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 171,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938113888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938113888888889
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2700137549218539
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.023870417732310314,
  "shareRatio": 1.0663109511105398,
  "totalAfter": 1173,
  "shareBefore": 0.02235597592433362,
  "totalBefore": 1163,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity