Ledger / Prediction #2921 · narrative · 1H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
31 of 1156 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (18 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.49×.
Made2026-10-13 07:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 08:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27368239380765685,
"momentum": 0.40049831908805594,
"diversity": -0.20322580645161284
},
"rawProbability": 0.5426349412462851
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.04063604240282685,
"share60": 0.027225583405358685,
"total15": 282,
"total60": 1156,
"momentum": 1.4925682876212911,
"diversity": 0.5806451612903226,
"launches15": 11,
"launches60": 31,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 18
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 171,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9938113888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938113888888889
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5426349412462851
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 08:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.294
Log loss0.782
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0196078431372549,
"shareRatio": 0.7396771314999595,
"totalAfter": 1173,
"shareBefore": 0.026655202063628546,
"totalBefore": 1163,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 23,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 31
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 54% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.67% → 1.96% (-26%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.40 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
ec2c9299ea8f3ca5c5cd10acebd87f8dd8e0c8fa8fc16505e372978240cfccb9Previous hash
f21bf4db888b55a3fe9a114f11a83d06a113c221fa5d52cb60764d6fad97a92f