Ledger / Prediction #2917 · token · 1H

Will $BCLAUDIA still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 25m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "black". Creator launched 11 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 06:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "LFWh4GnN4yAaBoUEpoAzLkgDMXVuRX3MwcHPkj5pump",
    "name": "Black Claudia",
    "symbol": "BCLAUDIA",
    "hotTerms": [
      "black"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 25,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3024.426273748876,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 11
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 362,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 07:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.031

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T06:08:14.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3021.808020648768,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3024.426273748876,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3024.426273748876,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6048.852547497752
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $BCLAUDIA would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,022, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $BCLAUDIA (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash59c68027c0b2dfc25a91e21b2be7b685d64ae10acb5115b8ad3e2e81ef75145d

Previous hashb8ae358e6757cbb81fa55b2a6284865f6c02f3e148ef348f38c6cb9a3297ebf4