Ledger / Prediction #2916 · narrative · 24H
Will "free" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 30% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
8 of 1224 launches in the last hour referenced "free" (7 distinct creators, rank #66). Last 15m momentum 0.26×.
Made2026-10-13 06:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.07050054438686033,
"momentum": -1.3537290028987543,
"diversity": 0.15
},
"rawProbability": 0.29595929851245445
},
"features": {
"term": "free",
"rank60": 66,
"share15": 0.0017921146953405018,
"share60": 0.0069387755102040816,
"total15": 278,
"total60": 1224,
"momentum": 0.2582753531520135,
"diversity": 0.875,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 8,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 125,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9963066666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998461111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.29595929851245445
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.496
Log loss1.217
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.004678148003760864,
"shareRatio": 1.168711820995558,
"totalAfter": 43607,
"shareBefore": 0.004002310612312263,
"totalBefore": 48472,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 204,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 194
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 30% that "free" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.40% → 0.47% (+17%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "free" (24H). momentum contributed -1.35 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
b8ae358e6757cbb81fa55b2a6284865f6c02f3e148ef348f38c6cb9a3297ebf4Previous hash
cfbb3b06123a2ca32cd4bf26f745cf5ed9ea3e1e09f4ba2143e47c669ca0af82