Will "viral" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 8% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

101 of 1224 launches in the last hour referenced "viral" (6 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.45085239066107385,
      "momentum": -2.735109349216216,
      "diversity": -0.8287128712871287
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07733790462154799
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "viral",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.005376344086021506,
    "share60": 0.08285714285714285,
    "total15": 278,
    "total60": 1224,
    "momentum": 0.06488691138301818,
    "diversity": 0.0594059405940594,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 101,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 125,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963066666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993844444444444
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.07733790462154799
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.013924564012437475,
  "shareRatio": 0.8027770512850995,
  "totalAfter": 7397,
  "shareBefore": 0.017372544566821847,
  "totalBefore": 8807,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 103,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 153
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity