GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2907 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1224 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (22 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 0.85×.

Made2026-10-13 06:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 07:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": -0.16567165387871804,
      "diversity": 0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4589924380566015
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.01971326164874552,
    "share60": 0.02326530612244898,
    "total15": 278,
    "total60": 1224,
    "momentum": 0.8473244042004652,
    "diversity": 0.7857142857142857,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 125,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963066666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963066666666667
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4589924380566015
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 07:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.293
Log loss0.779
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.024193548387096774,
  "shareRatio": 1.0590711335186669,
  "totalAfter": 1116,
  "shareBefore": 0.022857142857142857,
  "totalBefore": 1225,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 28
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.29% → 2.42% (+6%). PARTIAL.

— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash6968af6e3b27726343d6b56468899de9a0013e1a865845d0c6d75f30457b5a6c
Previous hash37c51ac224fbc47fe6af42d895b8cc2a333fd87d7e02b8c8cca91cc0170ebe2f