Ledger / Prediction #2901 · token · 1H

Will $GARFIELD still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 15m ago. X link, website. Rides hot term "cat".

Made2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14874997896424488
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "PcEmHW3VKxfGPfnfNxeUjcwBgt2dtiFh8wBgj16pump",
    "name": "Agent Garfield",
    "symbol": "GARFIELD",
    "hotTerms": [
      "cat"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 15,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 114,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 5265.888814243372,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 433,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.14874997896424488
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 07:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.022

Log loss0.161

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T06:00:18.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3042.0234433264263,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 6412.538727426185,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 5265.888814243372,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 10531.777628486743
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that $GARFIELD would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,042, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $GARFIELD (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1e8b5bcf10ba8c6154c520eaf185c590c45cc22c0bfe8f525411552c69630cb9

Previous hash2e9a468dcdb7344cf794044016b040527025565928ee0d742d835e98ab26dde8