Ledger / Prediction #2900 · narrative · 24H
Will "worm" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 1422 launches in the last hour referenced "worm" (5 distinct creators, rank #175). Last 15m momentum 4.20×.
Made2026-10-13 06:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 06:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 1.434522490709402,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.6381309819449271
},
"features": {
"term": "worm",
"rank60": 175,
"share15": 0.016224188790560472,
"share60": 0.003865073787772312,
"total15": 338,
"total60": 1422,
"momentum": 4.1976401179941005,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 5,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 116,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9993408333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999725347222223
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6381309819449271
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 06:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.131
Log loss0.449
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0032122616616570682,
"shareRatio": 1.0247222623432273,
"totalAfter": 43583,
"shareBefore": 0.0031356369262506446,
"totalBefore": 48475,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 140,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 152
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 64% that "worm" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.32% (+2%). PARTIAL.
— "worm" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
2e9a468dcdb7344cf794044016b040527025565928ee0d742d835e98ab26dde8Previous hash
f917fdbbbc214aa7f8ee1c405d426a95be31024180b031e74cfe78d66d6fd968