Ledger / Prediction #2896 · narrative · 6H

Will "makin" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1422 launches in the last hour referenced "makin" (4 distinct creators, rank #85). Last 15m momentum 3.08×.

Made2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 1.1243675624055625,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5920356062829769
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "makin",
    "rank60": 85,
    "share15": 0.016224188790560472,
    "share60": 0.005270555165144062,
    "total15": 338,
    "total60": 1422,
    "momentum": 3.07826941986234,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993408333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998901388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5920356062829769
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.166

Log loss0.524

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0032568677428490515,
  "shareRatio": 1.9297748831941102,
  "totalAfter": 7062,
  "shareBefore": 0.0016687061964623428,
  "totalBefore": 8989,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 23,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 15
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "makin" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.33% (+95%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "makin" (6H). momentum contributed +1.12 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash580d72a7cd13172093dbefcc0aff49b8fb0e6f8fe6da1bd233dfcc463f4e873c

Previous hash512b246c4768200e6c51f68b0b9026079be047355d9f63f2fdd27144fd1ea6d9