Ledger / Prediction #2894 · narrative · 6H

Will "been" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

84 of 1422 launches in the last hour referenced "been" (3 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.86×.

Made2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.423206832961382,
      "momentum": 0.6221118893226391,
      "diversity": -0.8571428571428571
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.45802976933693595
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "been",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.11061946902654868,
    "share60": 0.05938158819395643,
    "total15": 338,
    "total60": 1422,
    "momentum": 1.8628580405299262,
    "diversity": 0.03571428571428571,
    "launches15": 37,
    "launches60": 84,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993408333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998901388888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.45802976933693595
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.210

Log loss0.612

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003964882469555367,
  "shareRatio": 0.3438451364932936,
  "totalAfter": 7062,
  "shareBefore": 0.0116809433752364,
  "totalBefore": 8989,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 105
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "been" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.17% → 0.40% (-66%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "been" (6H). diversity contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashda2231cc44d868c2de34902bebdb2c3cd7e9473ae2631d0be8b9ab7f53290c03

Previous hash639137c93611ba03232f53682bd0e503df0ee8ed31745b9ee21ca8e56540044a