Ledger / Prediction #2892 · narrative · 1H

Will "run" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1422 launches in the last hour referenced "run" (7 distinct creators, rank #93). Last 15m momentum 0.28×.

Made2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.273527710392808,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2273989448149841
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "run",
    "rank60": 93,
    "share15": 0.0014749262536873156,
    "share60": 0.005270555165144062,
    "total15": 338,
    "total60": 1422,
    "momentum": 0.27984267453294,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9993408333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9993408333333333
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2273989448149841
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.597

Log loss1.481

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.010318142734307825,
  "shareRatio": 2.0418098510882015,
  "totalAfter": 1163,
  "shareBefore": 0.004912280701754386,
  "totalBefore": 1425,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 12,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "run" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.49% → 1.03% (+110%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "run" (1H). momentum contributed -1.27 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 77% and wrong on "run". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfb3c96bce79120be6f2447d2586a3665b5e0a3514aefc8e48aa4b8057686b4d0

Previous hasha122f3017b1d40e40380853ca9e29a004a21d5af865009a7770bb6ec5dca9f89