Ledger / Prediction #2883 · narrative · 24H

Will "rea" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 12% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

40 of 1460 launches in the last hour referenced "rea" (6 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-13 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3119162312519754,
      "momentum": -3.065997435951521,
      "diversity": -0.72
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1153684202470995
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "rea",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.0012919896640826874,
    "share60": 0.027720739219712527,
    "total15": 386,
    "total60": 1460,
    "momentum": 0.04660733084505694,
    "diversity": 0.15,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 40,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9941030555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997542939814815
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1153684202470995
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.123

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009406042808965565,
  "shareRatio": 0.7382753842624454,
  "totalAfter": 43589,
  "shareBefore": 0.0012792737026720313,
  "totalBefore": 48465,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 41,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 62
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 12% that "rea" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.09% (-26%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "rea" (24H). momentum contributed -3.07 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0de41fb201ff29cedece00b77ac4bb955fce6dcee966ee8718aa3b8a43ad405b

Previous hashd2a2b72c439073a135bced4d990c842740e095a6b864fe46027be3ec071eef2c