Will "nietzschean" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
57 of 1460 launches in the last hour referenced "nietzschean" (36 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 2.72×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3650420033100675,
"momentum": 1.0023601981542656,
"diversity": -0.14210526315789476
},
"rawProbability": 0.6359220168781936
},
"features": {
"term": "nietzschean",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.10723514211886305,
"share60": 0.039356605065023954,
"total15": 386,
"total60": 1460,
"momentum": 2.7247050893158073,
"diversity": 0.631578947368421,
"launches15": 41,
"launches60": 57,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 36
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 116,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9941030555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990171759259259
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6359220168781936
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0035790980672870437,
"shareRatio": 0.5276667620956198,
"totalAfter": 6985,
"shareBefore": 0.006862962143015275,
"totalBefore": 9034,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 25,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 62
}Predicted 64% that "nietzschean" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.69% → 0.36% (-48%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "nietzschean" (6H). momentum contributed +1.00 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
7b1c55619773bdedfc816f02f687557eea853cd144a5ef14c4656bd1d6144dfd92638199ec6aa6ef992e9ff7ae550b50feb9aaec2d302bee3bbe2c40972aae3e