GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2879 · narrative · 6H

Will "nietzschean" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 64% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

57 of 1460 launches in the last hour referenced "nietzschean" (36 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 2.72×.

Made2026-10-13 05:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 11:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 05:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3650420033100675,
      "momentum": 1.0023601981542656,
      "diversity": -0.14210526315789476
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6359220168781936
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nietzschean",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.10723514211886305,
    "share60": 0.039356605065023954,
    "total15": 386,
    "total60": 1460,
    "momentum": 2.7247050893158073,
    "diversity": 0.631578947368421,
    "launches15": 41,
    "launches60": 57,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 36
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9941030555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990171759259259
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6359220168781936
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 11:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.404
Log loss1.010
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0035790980672870437,
  "shareRatio": 0.5276667620956198,
  "totalAfter": 6985,
  "shareBefore": 0.006862962143015275,
  "totalBefore": 9034,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 62
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 64% that "nietzschean" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.69% → 0.36% (-48%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "nietzschean" (6H). momentum contributed +1.00 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7b1c55619773bdedfc816f02f687557eea853cd144a5ef14c4656bd1d6144dfd
Previous hash92638199ec6aa6ef992e9ff7ae550b50feb9aaec2d302bee3bbe2c40972aae3e