Ledger / Prediction #2878 · narrative · 6H

Will "test" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 17% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

95 of 1460 launches in the last hour referenced "test" (11 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.22×.

Made2026-10-13 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.441665846874966,
      "momentum": -1.5259264365273417,
      "diversity": -0.7610526315789473
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1691421472960748
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "test",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.014211886304909561,
    "share60": 0.06536618754277893,
    "total15": 386,
    "total60": 1460,
    "momentum": 0.21741953813060594,
    "diversity": 0.11578947368421053,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 95,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 116,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9941030555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990171759259259
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1691421472960748
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 11:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.029

Log loss0.185

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00901932712956335,
  "shareRatio": 0.5929574466106013,
  "totalAfter": 6985,
  "shareBefore": 0.015275625415098517,
  "totalBefore": 9034,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 63,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 138
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 17% that "test" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.53% → 0.90% (-41%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "test" (6H). momentum contributed -1.53 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash92638199ec6aa6ef992e9ff7ae550b50feb9aaec2d302bee3bbe2c40972aae3e

Previous hash49cff56f8451a4fab76958809fb1715b11399df063b386fb15d194bf854b3844