Ledger / Prediction #2873 · narrative · 1H
Will "sleep" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
106 of 1460 launches in the last hour referenced "sleep" (7 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.50×.
Made2026-10-13 05:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 05:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.458100177251695,
"momentum": 0.9159194433896609,
"diversity": -0.8207547169811321
},
"rawProbability": 0.5629799411411373
},
"features": {
"term": "sleep",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.1821705426356589,
"share60": 0.0728952772073922,
"total15": 386,
"total60": 1460,
"momentum": 2.4990719510863633,
"diversity": 0.0660377358490566,
"launches15": 70,
"launches60": 106,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 116,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9941030555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9941030555555556
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5629799411411373
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.317
Log loss0.828
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0,
"shareRatio": 0.005613889973883541,
"totalAfter": 1225,
"shareBefore": 0.07235494880546076,
"totalBefore": 1465,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 0,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 106
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 56% that "sleep" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 7.24% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "sleep" (1H). momentum contributed +0.92 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
f7a5ed0711a382a06776cd11f460ca8c673b1d3d9d91dac9cc1a5a1c602bb920Previous hash
0ee00d3bafa61e3b6b38d9a487d09e49f70ce7795a5e97ab9a4f8dd0e913f2c2