Ledger / Prediction #2864 · narrative · 6H

Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 56% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1361 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (8 distinct creators, rank #64). Last 15m momentum 1.53×.

Made2026-10-13 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.42677295830718864,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5641670706612619
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 64,
    "share15": 0.009562841530054645,
    "share60": 0.006240822320117474,
    "total15": 365,
    "total60": 1361,
    "momentum": 1.532304725168756,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968666666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994777777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5641670706612619
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.190

Log loss0.572

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.011713847441082136,
  "shareRatio": 1.7626916327724347,
  "totalAfter": 7171,
  "shareBefore": 0.006630434782608696,
  "totalBefore": 9200,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 84,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 61
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 56% that "chain" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.66% → 1.17% (+77%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "chain" (6H). momentum contributed +0.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2f128f58a5d2b235c7f4eb27b38a711cc7decb93dd17a42ccbf41c7a3512e19e

Previous hashe164d6a28f68aade761616d8a891cc00acda01e2d52239fabf7cdfcb92f52d6e