Ledger / Prediction #2862 · narrative · 6H
Will "web" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 66% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
52 of 1361 launches in the last hour referenced "web" (28 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 3.58×.
Made2026-10-13 05:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 11:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.351270870922099,
"momentum": 1.2752363199918275,
"diversity": -0.2538461538461539
},
"rawProbability": 0.6594541612322973
},
"features": {
"term": "web",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.13797814207650272,
"share60": 0.03854625550660793,
"total15": 365,
"total60": 1361,
"momentum": 3.5795472287275563,
"diversity": 0.5384615384615384,
"launches15": 50,
"launches60": 52,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 28
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 108,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968666666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994777777777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6594541612322973
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 11:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.435
Log loss1.077
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.000836703388648724,
"shareRatio": 0.1273112570939574,
"totalAfter": 7171,
"shareBefore": 0.007065217391304348,
"totalBefore": 9200,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 6,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 65
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 66% that "web" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 0.08% (-88%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "web" (6H). momentum contributed +1.28 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
d8d19d9393f96fb89a6a64a0b60949bd1958ba6debc4bfde7617bc96276c7c97Previous hash
b6a5a2ed4a3236dc97e03cf510a90918525c73020fddce5a04834bd32bf71995