Ledger / Prediction #2858 · narrative · 1H

Will "black" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 1361 launches in the last hour referenced "black" (30 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.86×.

Made2026-10-13 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": -0.1522609154853356,
      "diversity": -0.27931034482758615
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.41001085690418415
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "black",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.036885245901639344,
    "share60": 0.042951541850220265,
    "total15": 365,
    "total60": 1361,
    "momentum": 0.8587641866330391,
    "diversity": 0.5172413793103449,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968666666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968666666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.41001085690418415
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.168

Log loss0.528

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.010526315789473684,
  "shareRatio": 0.25399479747305836,
  "totalAfter": 1425,
  "shareBefore": 0.0424597364568082,
  "totalBefore": 1366,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 15,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "black" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.25% → 1.05% (-75%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "black" (1H). diversity contributed -0.28 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash103d1c8f6706dc4802a6901938077d9d363637c03277b90401a0d12b588c1d9c

Previous hash0fa107761726fc682fe7227acdb07632b41e675b17cbfa9aeb02a19beb4d9a87