GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2857 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

74 of 1361 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (14 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 2.37×.

Made2026-10-13 05:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 06:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40419407711551036,
      "momentum": 0.8640067389631731,
      "diversity": -0.6729729729729729
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5732755110284858
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.12978142076502733,
    "share60": 0.05469897209985316,
    "total15": 365,
    "total60": 1361,
    "momentum": 2.3726482561337883,
    "diversity": 0.1891891891891892,
    "launches15": 47,
    "launches60": 74,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968666666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968666666666667
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5732755110284858
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 06:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.329
Log loss0.852
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.05403508771929825,
  "shareRatio": 0.9972278961190545,
  "totalAfter": 1425,
  "shareBefore": 0.05417276720351391,
  "totalBefore": 1366,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 77,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 74
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 57% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.42% → 5.40% (-0%). PARTIAL.

— "uxento" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0fa107761726fc682fe7227acdb07632b41e675b17cbfa9aeb02a19beb4d9a87
Previous hash1c55c95fa2e8c3a2a145961e73db5d718099cdc3767a3c97e36a997eca5bd6c1