Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
74 of 1361 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (14 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 2.37×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.40419407711551036,
"momentum": 0.8640067389631731,
"diversity": -0.6729729729729729
},
"rawProbability": 0.5732755110284858
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.12978142076502733,
"share60": 0.05469897209985316,
"total15": 365,
"total60": 1361,
"momentum": 2.3726482561337883,
"diversity": 0.1891891891891892,
"launches15": 47,
"launches60": 74,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 14
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 108,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968666666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968666666666667
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5732755110284858
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.05403508771929825,
"shareRatio": 0.9972278961190545,
"totalAfter": 1425,
"shareBefore": 0.05417276720351391,
"totalBefore": 1366,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 77,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 74
}Predicted 57% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.42% → 5.40% (-0%). PARTIAL.
— "uxento" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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