Will "claudechud" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
61 of 1340 launches in the last hour referenced "claudechud" (37 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 4.09×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3752153927608816,
"momentum": 1.4081572748975348,
"diversity": -0.1721311475409836
},
"rawProbability": 0.6237793186393422
},
"features": {
"term": "claudechud",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.1875,
"share60": 0.04586129753914989,
"total15": 327,
"total60": 1340,
"momentum": 4.088414634146342,
"diversity": 0.6065573770491803,
"launches15": 61,
"launches60": 61,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 37
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 100,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9996725,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999863541666667
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6237793186393422
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0002964381812377434,
"shareRatio": 0.24243196120252164,
"totalAfter": 43854,
"shareBefore": 0.0012594718477071417,
"totalBefore": 48433,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 13,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 61
}Predicted 62% that "claudechud" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.03% (-76%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "claudechud" (24H). momentum contributed +1.41 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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