Ledger / Prediction #2842 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 1340 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (31 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.84×.

Made2026-10-13 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 04:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": -0.17425196514864627,
      "diversity": 0.1333333333333334
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4888002541958756
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.022865853658536585,
    "share60": 0.027218493661446682,
    "total15": 327,
    "total60": 1340,
    "momentum": 0.8400851987971935,
    "diversity": 0.8611111111111112,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 100,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9996725,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996725
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4888002541958756
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.239

Log loss0.671

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015017064846416382,
  "shareRatio": 0.5638771047861107,
  "totalAfter": 1465,
  "shareBefore": 0.026865671641791045,
  "totalBefore": 1340,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 36
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.69% → 1.50% (-44%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed -0.17 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2299cb451cb2c248784e89ab68e117a5a341655a7a1b3c1508c817c1a4e6bf27

Previous hash1bf3ed3971bf63a04cfe635796cadb6557e29cc8d8e5b756e492b4873b89a1bc