Will "chase" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

22 of 1654 launches in the last hour referenced "chase" (3 distinct creators, rank #22). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22224068113863232,
      "momentum": -2.1381093897686387,
      "diversity": -0.7363636363636363
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.16436310154126182
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chase",
    "rank60": 22,
    "share15": 0.0016025641025641025,
    "share60": 0.013595166163141994,
    "total15": 311,
    "total60": 1654,
    "momentum": 0.11787749287749287,
    "diversity": 0.13636363636363635,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 22,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949388888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997891203703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.16436310154126182
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006187126194459085,
  "shareRatio": 0.6180873816070883,
  "totalAfter": 43639,
  "shareBefore": 0.0010092480072501082,
  "totalBefore": 48551,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity