Will "digital" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
9 of 1654 launches in the last hour referenced "digital" (9 distinct creators, rank #64). Last 15m momentum 1.40×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.08816799973531786,
"momentum": 0.3335520332693407,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5511217424087991
},
"features": {
"term": "digital",
"rank60": 64,
"share15": 0.008012820512820512,
"share60": 0.005740181268882176,
"total15": 311,
"total60": 1654,
"momentum": 1.3959176788124155,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 9,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 9
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 144,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9949388888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991564814814815
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5511217424087991
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0032777929527451517,
"shareRatio": 1.0661386499157905,
"totalAfter": 7322,
"shareBefore": 0.0030885722825545483,
"totalBefore": 10037,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 24,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 31
}Predicted 55% that "digital" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.31% → 0.33% (+6%). PARTIAL.
— "digital" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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