Ledger / Prediction #2831 · narrative · 6H
Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 44% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
33 of 1654 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (14 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 1.19×.
Made2026-10-13 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 10:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 03:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.28306044735485697,
"momentum": 0.17191068171292506,
"diversity": -0.3909090909090909
},
"rawProbability": 0.4365547002884776
},
"features": {
"term": "uxento",
"rank60": 14,
"share15": 0.02403846153846154,
"share60": 0.0202416918429003,
"total15": 311,
"total60": 1654,
"momentum": 1.1875717566016075,
"diversity": 0.42424242424242425,
"launches15": 7,
"launches60": 33,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 14
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 144,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9949388888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991564814814815
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4365547002884776
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 10:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.317
Log loss0.829
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.031685331876536466,
"shareRatio": 1.2187353864784438,
"totalAfter": 7322,
"shareBefore": 0.026003785991830227,
"totalBefore": 10037,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 232,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 261
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 44% that "uxento" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.60% → 3.17% (+22%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "uxento" (6H). diversity contributed -0.39 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
1f716d3e4ac23cd81fc45472e1a94a994aa9b1830025e390ac1ce4c4aabba750Previous hash
8510fe91ed2fcf00ac6f8e2df2115e2e87b77f3441eb5e644c98423d5daa0b67