Ledger / Prediction #2829 · narrative · 6H

Will "market" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 1654 launches in the last hour referenced "market" (14 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

Made2026-10-13 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": -2.62190634114671,
      "diversity": -0.4333333333333333
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09696692283490217
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "market",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.0016025641025641025,
    "share60": 0.022054380664652568,
    "total15": 311,
    "total60": 1654,
    "momentum": 0.07266420793818054,
    "diversity": 0.3888888888888889,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949388888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991564814814815
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.09696692283490217
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.102

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005599562960939634,
  "shareRatio": 0.534141899052378,
  "totalAfter": 7322,
  "shareBefore": 0.010560924579057487,
  "totalBefore": 10037,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 41,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 106
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that "market" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.06% → 0.56% (-47%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "market" (6H). momentum contributed -2.62 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc923e0e610df30c01668da3a31180ff92b672cceb63a1fd331c78408f95a8514

Previous hash0ca5d3038cc44c4140f0d8eae42e9a8ba3d530d6f1afc87edde6439113fb7763