Ledger / Prediction #2828 · narrative · 1H

Will "pcat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1654 launches in the last hour referenced "pcat" (4 distinct creators, rank #119). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.

Made2026-10-13 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.20221603120825388,
      "diversity": -0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4574939106785198
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pcat",
    "rank60": 119,
    "share15": 0.004807692307692308,
    "share60": 0.00392749244712991,
    "total15": 311,
    "total60": 1654,
    "momentum": 1.224112426035503,
    "diversity": 0.6666666666666666,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9949388888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949388888888889
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4574939106785198
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.209

Log loss0.612

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007320644216691069,
  "shareRatio": 0.28023183838838556,
  "totalAfter": 1366,
  "shareBefore": 0.003616636528028933,
  "totalBefore": 1659,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 6
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "pcat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.07% (-80%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "pcat" (1H). diversity contributed -0.10 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0ca5d3038cc44c4140f0d8eae42e9a8ba3d530d6f1afc87edde6439113fb7763

Previous hashaa3727c584ebd8bd8352d8477fce4b212ad9cd4159dbcdcb217da5beeca5a67b