Will "superintelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
37 of 1654 launches in the last hour referenced "superintelligence" (21 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3002220000315186,
"momentum": -1.5503227248665197,
"diversity": -0.21891891891891893
},
"rawProbability": 0.14566428817431004
},
"features": {
"term": "superintelligence",
"rank60": 11,
"share15": 0.004807692307692308,
"share60": 0.022658610271903322,
"total15": 311,
"total60": 1654,
"momentum": 0.2121794871794872,
"diversity": 0.5675675675675675,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 37,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 21
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 144,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9949388888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9949388888888889
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.14566428817431004
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0,
"shareRatio": 0.016191172884662278,
"totalAfter": 1366,
"shareBefore": 0.02230259192284509,
"totalBefore": 1659,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 0,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 37
}Predicted 15% that "superintelligence" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.23% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "superintelligence" (1H). momentum contributed -1.55 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
312ef4ad60278134dad4a7fb94e7727e0e108127b71982403b7cf6e93f6c39e69ed4214067d3b3c7f535a3a103b4632e5fac7ffa66974551219eb9580a8342a9