GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2818 · narrative · 24H

Will "market" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 1778 launches in the last hour referenced "market" (20 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 1.79×.

Made2026-10-13 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 03:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 03:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": 0.5800918182207032,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5135637359438758
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "market",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.03263157894736842,
    "share60": 0.018268690275435637,
    "total15": 474,
    "total60": 1778,
    "momentum": 1.7862024291497978,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985138888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999380787037037
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5135637359438758
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 03:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.237
Log loss0.666
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.007670578508600694,
  "shareRatio": 1.0765280558133765,
  "totalAfter": 43543,
  "shareBefore": 0.007125646147826266,
  "totalBefore": 48557,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 334,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 346
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "market" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.71% → 0.77% (+8%). PARTIAL.

— "market" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash78a35dd868989a9df4ca85cdd5b70326ed523f3fa0428242cc5bc38ae22d2ce1
Previous hash937e5c8c9a19683acce18faad285c4567ce91f470a5fc93c99514e82eac08bbe