Will "alpha" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 1778 launches in the last hour referenced "alpha" (3 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.60×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": -0.5157193481676948,
      "diversity": -0.7941176470588235
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3076456405616365
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "alpha",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.011578947368421053,
    "share60": 0.0193929173693086,
    "total15": 474,
    "total60": 1778,
    "momentum": 0.597070938215103,
    "diversity": 0.08823529411764706,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985138888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999380787037037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3076456405616365
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016076062742576304,
  "shareRatio": 1.0843851957908608,
  "totalAfter": 43543,
  "shareBefore": 0.001482793418044772,
  "totalBefore": 48557,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 70,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 72
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity