Ledger / Prediction #2814 · narrative · 6H
Will "privacy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
35 of 1778 launches in the last hour referenced "privacy" (19 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 3.64×.
Made2026-10-13 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-13 09:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 03:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.291886522358297,
"momentum": 1.2919185111871379,
"diversity": -0.2485714285714286
},
"rawProbability": 0.6535461486182375
},
"features": {
"term": "privacy",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.07263157894736842,
"share60": 0.019955030916245082,
"total15": 474,
"total60": 1778,
"momentum": 3.639762787249815,
"diversity": 0.5428571428571428,
"launches15": 34,
"launches60": 35,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 178,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9985138888888889,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997523148148149
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6535461486182375
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-13 09:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.427
Log loss1.060
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002390438247011952,
"shareRatio": 0.5574435701608976,
"totalAfter": 7530,
"shareBefore": 0.004359776324519003,
"totalBefore": 10551,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 18,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 46
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 65% that "privacy" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.44% → 0.24% (-45%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "privacy" (6H). momentum contributed +1.29 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
26ca068e1ca7178eb31353622b05987ec26c760af39e001332f642ab0de267b9Previous hash
80c555620c671d1a5fcaa51dfdfdeafea987274622fb9f0971788505de26ec6c