Will "nigga" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

42 of 1778 launches in the last hour referenced "nigga" (32 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.75×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3192347558773902,
      "momentum": -0.28894602880290654,
      "diversity": 0.014285714285714235
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4332022347981056
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "nigga",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.017894736842105262,
    "share60": 0.02388982574480045,
    "total15": 474,
    "total60": 1778,
    "momentum": 0.7490526315789473,
    "diversity": 0.7619047619047619,
    "launches15": 8,
    "launches60": 42,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 178,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985138888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997523148148149
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4332022347981056
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009296148738379814,
  "shareRatio": 0.20404979805154874,
  "totalAfter": 7530,
  "shareBefore": 0.004833665055444982,
  "totalBefore": 10551,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 51
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity