Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

67 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (38 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.34×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3892882060435298,
      "momentum": 0.29133671333997857,
      "diversity": -0.21940298507462688
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4826596987919399
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.05835240274599542,
    "share60": 0.0436046511627907,
    "total15": 436,
    "total60": 1547,
    "momentum": 1.3382151029748284,
    "diversity": 0.5671641791044776,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 67,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 158,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932313888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999717974537037
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4826596987919399
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04907876924488906,
  "shareRatio": 1.189386560793651,
  "totalAfter": 43583,
  "shareBefore": 0.04126314046850426,
  "totalBefore": 48324,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2139,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 1994
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity