Ledger / Prediction #2800 · narrative · 6H

Will "walter" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 47% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "walter" (5 distinct creators, rank #226). Last 15m momentum 0.97×.

Made2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.03449712507617861,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.47149394864998834
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "walter",
    "rank60": 226,
    "share15": 0.003432494279176201,
    "share60": 0.0035529715762273903,
    "total15": 436,
    "total60": 1547,
    "momentum": 0.9660911171208654,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 158,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932313888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988718981481481
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.47149394864998834
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.222

Log loss0.638

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0010095911155981827,
  "shareRatio": 0.3027391535908886,
  "totalAfter": 7924,
  "shareBefore": 0.0034971470642370696,
  "totalBefore": 10866,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 38
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 47% that "walter" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.35% → 0.10% (-71%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "walter" (6H). momentum contributed -0.03 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash59a97d95dd399b962733afdf4a436696040b7129ae761c193e27b4e8541d6af9

Previous hash628e1f55c4d086814d983225a9e755f2252446551c4891affbe1e744614615ba