Ledger / Prediction #2799 · narrative · 6H

Will "swan" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 12% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

30 of 1547 launches in the last hour referenced "swan" (26 distinct creators, rank #25). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

Made2026-10-13 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2687639203842082,
      "momentum": -2.846088005119229,
      "diversity": 0.14000000000000004
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11856114043732134
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "swan",
    "rank60": 25,
    "share15": 0.0011441647597254005,
    "share60": 0.01970284237726098,
    "total15": 436,
    "total60": 1547,
    "momentum": 0.058071050755899016,
    "diversity": 0.8666666666666667,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 30,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 158,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932313888888888,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988718981481481
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.11856114043732134
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.014

Log loss0.126

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0003785966683493185,
  "shareRatio": 0.1476709536520262,
  "totalAfter": 7924,
  "shareBefore": 0.0029449659488312166,
  "totalBefore": 10866,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 32
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 12% that "swan" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.29% → 0.04% (-87%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "swan" (6H). momentum contributed -2.85 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash628e1f55c4d086814d983225a9e755f2252446551c4891affbe1e744614615ba

Previous hasha956753e874bce37be9bea29e3e40cacdbc79c046f6a4f3eb446fedc71597eb8