Ledger / Prediction #2791 · token · 1H

Will $$AURA still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 4% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 25m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "auracoin". Creator launched 81 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03752722974296934
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "4bPGVwoeYYzpVq4wfD8k7j3YFHgeB3GRAnfyJLXxpump",
    "name": "AURACOIN",
    "symbol": "$AURA",
    "hotTerms": [
      "auracoin",
      "aura",
      "around",
      "confidence",
      "energy",
      "main",
      "character",
      "vibes",
      "golden",
      "halo",
      "represents",
      "simple",
      "hooded",
      "mascot",
      "keeps",
      "relatable",
      "friendly"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 25,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 186,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 6186.80225540479,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 81
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 493,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03752722974296934
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.038

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-13T02:05:19.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 12360.948927438183,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 12481.291384382215,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 6186.80225540479,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 12373.60451080958
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 4% that $$AURA would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $12,361, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $$AURA (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash55214b151f5c1270d0c4b096b8e2587743ffc37af8b8378f0d1caf60c200a47d

Previous hash756d386d292237588dcd724ff8c3e09c3c59b270c35b10b898ba440aae05b069