Ledger / Prediction #279 · narrative · 1H

Will "hitler" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 2349 launches in the last hour referenced "hitler" (31 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-09 18:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 19:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 18:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": -3.019885041440417,
      "diversity": -0.054545454545454494
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hitler",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.0009242144177449168,
    "share60": 0.018936170212765956,
    "total15": 540,
    "total60": 2349,
    "momentum": 0.04880682880225966,
    "diversity": 0.7045454545454546,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 398,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9921377777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9921377777777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 19:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007336757153338225,
  "shareRatio": 0.048783904607689235,
  "totalAfter": 2726,
  "shareBefore": 0.018588931136459652,
  "totalBefore": 2367,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 44
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "hitler" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.86% → 0.07% (-96%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "hitler" (1H). momentum contributed -3.02 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1f9a19930a291c13d5f030eec6a3080d1c594c718abf90e21084f50810c2ca57

Previous hash46949dedbbc79670e36d576c547eed21bb7c28cf576999fdc789695ecbafa659