Ledger / Prediction #2787 · narrative · 24H

Will "keeps" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 28% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 1442 launches in the last hour referenced "keeps" (5 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.

Made2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 02:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -0.8759883528501327,
      "diversity": -0.7421052631578947
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2774921401808483
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "keeps",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.011111111111111112,
    "share60": 0.02668052668052668,
    "total15": 404,
    "total60": 1442,
    "momentum": 0.41645021645021646,
    "diversity": 0.13157894736842105,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963344444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998472685185186
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2774921401808483
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 02:34 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.077

Log loss0.325

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003312553196383796,
  "shareRatio": 0.7706688348254044,
  "totalAfter": 43471,
  "shareBefore": 0.004302854778651221,
  "totalBefore": 48340,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 144,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 208
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 28% that "keeps" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.43% → 0.33% (-23%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "keeps" (24H). momentum contributed -0.88 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash06d6e813f856335d2cc2c2a7f18381c641af22eabe2c8635b81b38a0ec8ab319

Previous hash1791ab088473b0f6599de2afe734103359a2dde633e6c224d227603d04d79bee