GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #2785 · narrative · 24H

Will "black" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1442 launches in the last hour referenced "black" (38 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.54×.

Made2026-10-13 02:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": 0.43028766677109875,
      "diversity": 0.07021276595744674
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5295414143900069
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "black",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.050617283950617285,
    "share60": 0.03291753291753292,
    "total15": 404,
    "total60": 1442,
    "momentum": 1.5376998050682262,
    "diversity": 0.8085106382978723,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 38
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963344444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998472685185186
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5295414143900069
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 02:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.221
Log loss0.636
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.014354397184329784,
  "shareRatio": 3.4635708414829693,
  "totalAfter": 43471,
  "shareBefore": 0.004137360364087712,
  "totalBefore": 48340,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 624,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 200
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "black" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.41% → 1.44% (+247%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "black" (24H). momentum contributed +0.43 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe455b2bed35a5c259cc95e290ada45cea213b7f7eae9a61cd26ed26eb3fc69cc
Previous hash467fda543735db174dc1bf229d2946ead2eb07d9142b6a1806df8b83691e545f