Ledger / Prediction #2778 · narrative · 1H

Will "energy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 23% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 1442 launches in the last hour referenced "energy" (11 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.54×.

Made2026-10-13 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-13 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-13 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": -0.6164771573650482,
      "diversity": -0.6306122448979591
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.230634481973257
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "energy",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.018518518518518517,
    "share60": 0.034303534303534305,
    "total15": 404,
    "total60": 1442,
    "momentum": 0.5398428731762065,
    "diversity": 0.22448979591836735,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963344444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963344444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.230634481973257
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-13 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.053

Log loss0.262

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015730337078651686,
  "shareRatio": 0.46713627005597813,
  "totalAfter": 1780,
  "shareBefore": 0.03393351800554017,
  "totalBefore": 1444,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 28,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 23% that "energy" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.39% → 1.57% (-54%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "energy" (1H). diversity contributed -0.63 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4a8b1c7d3d33ff745f1acccf1bf7a70d211bdcb28ae1eaa33bd74849f923c4d4

Previous hash346c9f4116324bc7ae716d16acf949fecf1e594dae16e19b7c976fc677be9362