Will "bear" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 57% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 1442 launches in the last hour referenced "bear" (40 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.19×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": 0.17198020299922215,
      "diversity": 0.0795918367346939
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.572957841212782
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bear",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.040740740740740744,
    "share60": 0.034303534303534305,
    "total15": 404,
    "total60": 1442,
    "momentum": 1.1876543209876544,
    "diversity": 0.8163265306122449,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 162,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9963344444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9963344444444444
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.572957841212782
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03258426966292135,
  "shareRatio": 0.9588586595885867,
  "totalAfter": 1780,
  "shareBefore": 0.03393351800554017,
  "totalBefore": 1444,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 58,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity